Monthly Archives: December 2021

Not Feigning Legitimacy: Elections in Somalia

Not Feigning Legitimacy: Elections in Somalia

The elections that have happened to date have been entirely rigged, with four main methods being used to do this. The first method involved the “closing” of seats for a particular candidate, with the candidate selecting their opponent who normally ends up resigning moments before voting begins. An open vote would then ensue, guaranteeing the sole candidate to win in a landslide. Of the 54 senators in the upper house, 22 were elected in this manner.  The second method of rigging the elections was by denying an undesirable candidate the security clearance. The third method was by creating fake voters that were not representative of the clans to whom the seat belongs – this was done by ignoring the real traditional elders and having someone else pose as them. The last two methods were primarily used in the lower house elections, with all candidates unwanted by the Federal Member States (FMS) presidents being sidelined. The fourth method was by using monetary incentives to ensure that the wanted candidates were elected by the FMS parliaments and electoral delegates.

Upper House Elections

The upper house elections in the FMSs of Southwest, Puntland, and Jubbaland were totally controlled by the leadership in the respective FMSs. The candidates were handpicked for loyalty, and the FMS parliaments that were electing the senators were paid directly by the FMS leadership. In those three FMSs where the FMS presidents maintain a tight grip on the FMS parliaments, all MPs were paid $3000 each. The candidates were expected to pay for their registration fees and that of their fake candidates. In turn, some candidates received that money from individuals running for president or from the FMS presidents themselves.

The other three FMSs saw the candidates privately paying the FMS parliamentarians. As before, they were largely funded by individuals running for president. In HirShabelle, the most expensive position saw all candidates paying a combined $9,000 per seat. As HirShabelle has 99 FMS MPs, that seat cost close to one million USD. Bribes were paid to a “committee” representing the MPs. This committee would in turn go about disbursing the loot.

In Galmudug, the state “closed” seats for its selected individuals but did not pay for them. The desired candidates were expected to bring their bribes, which were usually $2,000 per vote, to the leadership of the state, which disbursed the funds on their behalf after keeping a cut of the loot. As Galmudug has 89 MPs, this is $178,000 for every desired candidate. The candidates all brought along fake candidates that resigned before elections occurred.

In the Somaliland elections that occurred in Mogadishu, six out of the 11 seats were “closed”, with the desired candidates bringing along fake candidates. As there is no FMS president or parliament for Somaliland, the bribes were among the lowest, at $1000 per vote, which equals a total of $54,000 per seat.

Lower House Elections

The lower house elections were easier to rig because it did not involve the FMS parliaments. Here, the security clearance was the main tool to deny candidates from running. After that was done, desirable voters would be selected by bringing in delegates that were handpicked by the chosen candidate, regardless of whether they represented their constituency or not.

The elections that have happened to date at the lower house were more expensive in Galmudug where it could reach $2,000 per vote ($202,000 per seat), and it was cheapest in Southwest where the cheapest seat was for $150 per vote ($15,300 per seat). However, it seems most of the money did not reach the voting delegates in Southwest state; the money was paid to middlemen representing the FMS leadership. The delegates were given a fraction of the actual bribes paid by/for the candidates.

Outlook and recommendations

With most of the lower house elections remaining, and with the FMS leaders united in their pleasure with the way things are going, it is very likely that what we have seen will continue. The elections are not only illegitimate, but it also risks causing Somalia to slide back into civil war. Although the process is itself undemocratic, unashamed stealing of seats would further weaken what little trust the public have in the process. And with some politicians and clans threatening to start a parallel process, chances of violence are elevated.

Our recommendations are:

  1. Unless the candidates are wanted for crimes, the security clearance should be discarded. If a candidate is rejected for security reasons, the reasons should be made public.
  • No elections should be held for a seat while its traditional leaders are maintaining that fake voters are involved.
  • All the lower house elections that have been held should be discarded.

The Ridiculous Results

Here we have the list of all elections held to date and the unbelievable winning margins.

Upper house:

ConstituencyWinner Winning VotesWinning %Type of vote
PuntlandCabdiraxmaan Maxamed Maxamuud5481.8182Secret
PuntlandMaxamed Cali Yusuf “gaagaab”6598.4848Open vote
PuntlandMaxamed Cabdi Cusmaan Majiino6598.4848Secret
PuntlandCabdullaahi Cali Xirsi Tima-cadde6598.4848Open vote
PuntlandCabdisamad Yuusuf Maxamed6496.9697Secret
PuntlandDaahir Ayaanle Siciid6496.9697Open vote
PuntlandFarxaan Cali xuseen6598.4848Secret
PuntlandZaynab ismail Mohamed6598.4848Secret
PuntlandCabdiqani Geelle Maxamed5278.7879Secret
PuntlandSamiiro Maxamuud Xaaji Cawad6598.4848Open vote
PuntlandSareedo Maxamed Xasan 646496.9697Open vote
SWSZamzam Ibraahim Cali8185.2632Secret
SWSAyaan Aadan Cabdullaahi7983.1579Secret
SWSAadan Cabdinasir Maxamed8084.2105Secret
SWSDr. Xuseen Maxamed Daahir7174.7368Secret
SWSMaxamuud Maxamed Cabdinuur7680Secret
SWSXasan Xuseen Xaaji7477.8947Secret
SWSCali Sheekh Maxamuud Gacal6871.5789Secret
SWSCabdiwali Maxamed Ibraahim (Xaabsade)6871.5789Secret
SomalilandCabdi Xaashi Cabdullaahi4495.6522Open vote
SomalilandSaalax Axmed Jaamac  (Wasiirka dastuurka Soomaaliya)2963.0435Secret
SomalilandProf. Cabdi Ismaaciil Samatar2554.3478Secret
SomalilandCismaan Abuukar Dubbe2860.8696Secret
SomalilandLayla Axmed Ismaaciil3984.7826Open vote
SomalilandBilaal Idiris Cabdullaahi3882.6087Secret
SomalilandSaciid Cabdi Xuseen4291.3043Open vote
SomalilandNaciimo Xasan Xaaji3065.2174Secret
SomalilandAxmed Maxamed Saciid4393.4783Open vote
SomalilandAxmed Ibraahin Maxamed “Qorane”4495.6522Open vote
SomalilandDeeqo Xasan Xuseen56100Open vote
JubalandIlyaas Badal Gaboose5575.3425Secret
JubalandCabdullaahi Sh. Ismaaciil “Fartaag”7197.2603Open vote
JubalandCabdirisaaq Maxamed Cusmaan5980.8219Secret
JubalandIftin Xasan Iman “Baasto”72100Open vote
JubalandXasan Daahir Yarow5980.8219Secret
JubalandIbraahim Awgaab Cismaan5778.0822Secret
JubalandLayla Nuur Maax6386.3014Secret
JubalandMaryan Faarax Kadiye5068.4932Secret
GalmudugSiciid Siyaad Shirwac8797.7528Open vote
GalmudugYuusuf Geelle Ugaas 8797.7528Open vote
GalmudugCabdi Axmed Dhuxulow8696.6292Open vote
GalmudugSamsam Daahir Maxamuud89100Open vote
GalmudugCabdixakiin Macallin Axmed8696.6292Open vote
GalmudugDuniyo Maxamed Cali8898.8764Open vote
GalmudugCabdi Xasan Cawaale8393.2584Open vote
GalmudugCabdi Cismaan Xareed 8393.2584Open vote
HirshabeelleMuuse Suudi Yalaxow5555.5556Secret
HirshabeelleNuur Maxamed Geedi “Canjeex”7070.7071Secret
HirshabeelleFartuun C/qaadir Faarax Karaama 8383.8384Open vote
HirshabeelleCali Shacbaan Ibrahim6262.6263Secret
HirshabeelleZamzam Cabdulaahi7777.7778Secret
HirshabeelleXasan Iidoow Muxumed 6969.697Secret
HirshabeelleDr Cusmaan Maxamuud Dufle )6868.6869Secret
HirshabeelleAxmed Maxamed Cali “Af-cadey”5252.5253Secret

Lower house:

ConstituencyWinnerWinning votesWinning margin
HOP067Yaasiin Cabdullahi Maxamuud (Farey) 6867.33
HOP103Maxamed Cali Xasan – Under Investigation7877.23
HOP104Mahad Cabdalle Cawad8483.17
Hop272Maxamuud Cabdiraxmaan Cumar6564.36
HOP26Yuusuf Geelle Ugaas8281.19
HOP225Maxamed Cabdi Xayir Maareeye9695.05
HOP202Aamino Cumar Jaamac101100
HOP210Faadumo Xasan Cali9190.1
HOP208Maxamed Haaruun Cabdullaahi9998.02
HOP233Axmed Cismaan Diiriye6564.36
HOP239Mahdi Maxamed Guuleed9796.04
HOP237Biixi Iimaan Cige9190.1
HOP182Maxamed Mursal Sheekh Cabdiraxmaan8887.13
HOP170Aadan Maxamed Nuur Saransoor8281.19
HOP171Fowsiya Maxamed Sheekh8483.17
HOP054Cabdishakuur Cali Mire8584.16
HOP043Xuseen Yuusuf Qaasim8180.2
HOP189Aadan Maxamed Nuur6362.38
HOP042Cabdicaziz Xaaji Cabdi8079.21
HOP213Amino Maxamed Mursal7978.22
HOP180Sadaat Maxamed Nuur8786.14
HOP154Sareedo Maxamed Cabdalla- Under Investigation8988.12
HOP193Cabdullahi Aadan Axmed6665.35
HOP041Nuura Mustafa Muqtaar8382.18